Read The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't book online now. You also can download other books, magazine and also comics. Get online The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't today. Are you Looking Download or read The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't for free..? enjoy it.
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation's most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the futu
0 comments:
Enregistrer un commentaire